The Local News Addict: What does the morning after mean for COPE?

Vancouver, BC (Nov 20, 2011) – Colleague Stu Hemerling asked me today, “Do you think this spells the end of COPE?” That’s a tough question. NPA also has faced disappointing results in two elections in a row and seem to be sticking around. The difference for COPE is that the power-sharing deal with Vision has collapsed, if not formally, certainly in the array of COPE’s heartbreaking near-misses for City Council and Park Board. For the details see the City’s election summary.

COPE now has representation only on School Board, but was not far out of the running for City Council and Park Board. Woodsworth (COPE) lost that 10th spot to Carr (Green) by fewer than 100 votes.

That race at the bottom was a tight one, but not an important one for Vision as it turned out; they took the top seven council seats, which along with the mayor’s seat gives them a safe majority in council and that powerful two-thirds “super-majority” required for financial decisions.

Will COPE see their relative competitiveness as a mandate to carry on? If COPE sticks around for the 2014 election (and I’m betting they will), they’ll have to break with Vision and run a mayoral candidate–“and a decent one” Stu reminds me.

They’ll have to reinvent themselves. Green seems pretty determined to grow organically (sorry) without coalitions. So COPE will compete for the minds of voters who, by then, may have grown tired of the left agenda.

Our most recent poll included the slate party support question. Vision gained substantial ground in the weeks between our October poll and our November election prediction; NPA held its traditional 30%ish territory. Viewing the decline in COPE support (from 24% to 13%), there seems no question that the emergence of Green has cost COPE dearly.