Can the NDP win popular support in the City of Vancouver? » Justason Market Intelligence

Can the NDP win popular support in the City of Vancouver?

Post Date

2019-10-17

2019 Canadian federal party leaders: Liberal Justin Trudeau, NDP Jagmeet Singh, Conservative Andrew Scheer, Green Elizabeth May.

Vancouver B.C. (17 October 2019) — The New Democratic Party (NDP) has a directional lead over the Liberals among decided voters in the City of Vancouver, in these final days before the federal election.

Decided voter support: City of Vancouver

The NDP, led by Jagmeet Singh, is directionally ahead of the Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in the City of Vancouver (30% versus 25%). Nineteen per cent support their conservative candidate, while 14 per cent say they will vote Green. A further 11 per cent will support another candidate, driven by support for independent Jody Wilson Raybould in Vancouver-Granville.

The Liberal party enjoyed 44 per cent support in the 2015 federal election. In 2019 that support has been vulnerable falling below the NDP in April, following revelations that the Prime Minister’s office pressured then attorney general, Jody Wilson-Raybould, to make a non-prosecution deal in the corruption case against SNC Lavalin.

The Liberals rebounded by September 2019, to the expense of both the NDP and the Conservatives. However, following revelations that Trudeau had appeared in brownface and blackface, support for the Liberals has again fallen to 25 per cent among Vancouver voters. Liberal support is now directionally behind the leading NDP in the final days before the October 2019 federal election.

Notably, support for a non-main party candidate has grown steadily since April. Jody Wilson-Raybould’s independent candidacy in Vancouver-Granville is the main contributor to this growth.



How voter age can make a difference

Popular support for the NDP on election day will rely heavily on a ground operation that turns out voters who are under 55 years.

Among 18-to-34 year olds, the group least likely to turn out on election day, NDP support stands at 33 per cent, ahead of the Liberals, Greens, and Conservatives (26%, 18%, and 16%).

NDP support is similar among 35-to-54 year olds (39%), well ahead of Liberal, Conservative, and Green support (20%, 14%, and 12%).

But among voters 55 and older, a strong majority of whom will turnout to vote, NDP support stands at just 18 per cent, well behind Liberal and Conservative support (29% and 27%).

2015 Voter retention

Liberal vulnerability is most evident when examining the loyalty of that support since 2015, especially by comparison to higher loyalty for the other main parties.

A majority (63%) of 2015 Liberal voters in Vancouver tell pollsters they will not support the Liberals in the October federal election. Just 37 per cent will vote for the Liberals.

In stark contrast, the other major parties will retain a majority of their 2015 support. The Conservatives retain 74 per cent of their 2015 voters; NDP, 75 per cent; and the Greens, 65 per cent.


For more information contact:

Barb Justason, Justason Market Intelligence

+1 604 783 4165 / Barb@JustasonMI.com


Tabulations


Research Notes

These are the findings of a Justason Market Intelligence (JMI) survey of City of Vancouver citizens 18 years and older (n=332). The online survey, conducted and sponsored by Justason Market Intelligence, was completed in English October 11, 12, 15, and 16 October 2019.

The final sample was adjusted to match the demographic distribution of the City of Vancouver according to the 2016 Canadian census according to age, gender, and region. The final sample of 332 carries a margin of error of +/-5.4 percentage points 95 per cent of the time. The margin of error for the 297 decided voters is +/-5.7.

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