The local news addict: The race at the bottom

Vancouver, BC (Nov 14, 2011) – NPA’s poll of Vancouverites (The Vancouver Sun, Saturday, November 12, above the fold) is interesting particularly looking at the trajectory over time, since the baseline measure in August. It shows a steady climb in support for mayoral candidate, Suzanne Anton. Another poll, discussed today by Jeff Lee in The Vancouver Sun also finds this narrower gap in support. We are in field now polling Vancouverites about their voting plans and we also are observing growth for Anton and some decline for Robertson. But we are not seeing that very narrow gap in support reported by other firms.

Are things improving for NPA mayoral candidate, Suzanne Anton? Yes. But, overcoming Robertson’s advantage (reported by us in October) will be historic. Is that gap closing fast enough to unseat the mayor? We don’t think so. But, as a business owner with offices in the 1100 block of Hornby Street, I am prepared to be wrong (notwithstanding that magic carpet ride errr, separated bike lane, to work a few mornings a month).

What are the real issues? Occupy Vancouver has captured the imagination of Vancouver residents, the local media and the candidates. But it is not a top issue of concern. Residents in large numbers tell us they are concerned about housing affordability well ahead of all other issues including Occupy Vancouver, which barely registers among election concerns in our research. I hope the candidates for council and mayor have a chance to refocus on their real plans for the coming three years.

I’ve commented recently with the media that I am confident in my firm’s work. But I have used some unfortunate turns of phrase to illustrate my confidence. To my family and colleagues at JMI: Regardless of the outcome of the November 19 municipal election, I will not close my firm.

What will be the outcome of this Saturday’s election? You know what I think. But don’t underestimate the power of voter turnout, which may boost Anton and the NPA.

The race is at the bottom! Watch for those final few seats in council. Folks we’ve barely heard of are powerful. They will recapture or dissolve Vision’s majority. Honestly, where council is concerned, the race is at the bottom and council majority (or not) will undoubtedly be separated by 100s (or fewer) votes.

Unfortunately, the attention polling gets becomes a distraction at a time when candidates and the electorate really need to refocus on the issues. For this reason, we won’t release before Saturday’s election.