Fry takes lead in Vancouver’s mayoral race

Vancouver, B.C. (September 16, 2026) — A new poll from Justason Market Intelligence (JMI) finds Green Party candidate Pete Fry now holds a lead in the race for Vancouver mayor. Fry overtakes incumbent Ken Sim (ABC Vancouver) following the exits of two rival candidates. With nominations having just closed and a month remaining before the October 17 vote, the race is still very much in motion, and further shifts are possible.

Overall, Fry leads with 45% support among decided voters, followed by Sim at 30%, Colleen Hardwick (TEAM for a Livable Vancouver) at 11%, Kareem Allam (Vancouver Liberals) at 10%, and Rebecca Bligh (Vote Vancouver) at 5%.

Support for Fry is strongest among women (60%, compared with 19% for Sim). Among men, the race is closer, with Sim leading Fry 39% to 32%.

Fry leads across the City: Downtown Peninsula (47%), the West Side (39%), and the East Side (48%). Across the same regions, Sim’s support ranges from 28% to 33%.

Election issues

Cost of living issues dominate voter concerns heading into the election. Housing affordability (19%) and cost of living generally (23%) together account for four in ten when Vancouver residents are asked to name the single most important issue facing the city, well ahead of public safety and crime (10%), homelessness (9%), and city government leadership or accountability (10%), which cluster well behind.

Impacts of candidate exits

An earlier poll from Research Co., conducted July 30 to August 1 among decided voters, found Sim leading with 30% support, followed by Allam and Fry tied at 19% each and Hardwick at 14% as reported by Business in Vancouver, citing Research Co.’s own polling.

JMI’s own topline figure for Sim, across our full field period, lines up closely with that August number. But the blended figure obscures a shift underway within our data. JMI fielded this poll from August 31 to September 11, a period that captured the withdrawal of COPE’s Stephanie Allen, who endorsed Fry on September 2, and OneCity’s William Azaroff, who endorsed Fry on September 8.

Over the field period, Fry’s support rose from 38% to 59%, and Sim’s fell from 33% to 24%, though the post-September 8 figures are based on a smaller number of interviews (119) and carry a wider error margin than the overall numbers above.

Anticipating that candidates might withdraw, the questionnaire included a second-choice question for mayor. When Allen and Azaroff left the race, we used those responses to reassign their supporters to their stated second choice.

---

Research notes

These are the findings of a general population survey of City of Vancouver adults. This online survey, conducted by Justason Market Intelligence and co-sponsored by Fair Voting BC, was completed August 31 to September 11, 2026. In total, 607 surveys were completed among Vancouver adults, yielding 336 decided voters for mayor.

Data were weighted to reflect the actual gender, age, and regional composition of Vancouver. The design effect introduced by weighting produces an effective sample size of 509, carrying a margin of error for the full sample of ±4.35%, 19 times out of 20. Margins of error are larger for subgroups, including the decided-voter subsample. Data tabulations include significance testing among subgroups.

The questionnaire was designed to anticipate candidate withdrawals: Decided voters were asked for both a first- and second-choice candidate for mayor. Following the withdrawals of Stephanie Allen and William Azaroff, respondents who had named either as their first choice were reassigned to their stated second choice. The mayoral results reported here reflect this reassignment.

View release here.

View data tables here.

---

For more information contact: