Will Vision Vancouver lose council seat in fall by-election? » Justason Market Intelligence

Will Vision Vancouver lose council seat in fall by-election?

Post Date

2017-07-28

Vancouver B.C. (28 July 2017)

The Green Party or Non-Partisan Association (NPA) are poised to pick up a seat in this fall’s by-election to fill the Vancouver City Council seat vacated by Geoff Meggs, who is now Premier John Horgan’s chief of staff.

If the by-election were held today, just 17% of decided by-election voters would support a Vision Vancouver candidate, while the Green Party and NPA would compete for plurality support. Declared OneCity candidate Judy Graves would receive about as many votes as a Vision candidate (18%).

The Green Party is a clear winner with these groups:

  • under 35 years (39% vs. NPA 27%),
  • women (33% vs. OneCity 23% vs. NPA 22%),
  • short-term rental opponents (32% vs OneCity 25%).

The NPA has the directional edge with these groups:

  • 55 and older (28% vs. Green 24% vs OneCity 24%),
  • men (33% vs. Green 27%),
  • short-term rental supporters (34% vs. Green 26%).

Although not poised to be elected at this early stage, Judy Graves and OneCity are competitive among residents 55 and older and STR opponents.

Vision, which shares third position in our hypothetical by-election, garners its lower support levels (17%) relatively consistently from almost all groups. Younger adults, with single-digit support for Vision, are now leaning strongly Green.

View data table here.

Research Notes

These are the findings of an online survey of 400 residents of the City of Vancouver. The survey was conducted by Justason Market Intelligence. The final weighted sample reflects the actual population demographics according to the most recent census (2016). These data rely on an online sample of the firm’s residential / consumer panel, recruited using probability sampling by landline and cell phone.
  • Dates of research: Online, July 20-24, 2017.
  • Sample size: 400 Vancouver residents including 209 decided voters.
  • Methodology: Justason Market Intelligence online residential panel.
  • Weighting: Final population data were weighted to match actual regional, gender, and age distributions according to the 2016 Canadian Census.
  • Margin of error: An unweighted probability sample of 400 carries a margin of error of +/-5.0 percentage points 95% of the time.
  • Research Sponsor: Justason Market Intelligence Inc.
 
For more information contact:
Barb Justason, Justason Market Intelligence Inc.
+1 604 783 4165 / Barb@JustasonMI.com / 
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