A comment on Northern Gateway Pipelines poll: In defence of polling and balanced journalism

(Aug 3, 2012, 3:15pm) – The Vancouver Observer contacted me this afternoon. They have corrected the errors in their article about Northern Gateway Pipeline poll. Here it is.

Vancouver, B.C. (Aug 3, 2012) – Yesterday, the Vancouver Observer was gracious enough to seek my opinion about Angus Reid’s August 1 poll about the Northern Gateway Pipelines proposal.

Published yesterday, their premise, “British Columbians’ opposition to Enbridge’s controversial Northern Gateway pipeline has grown,” is not backed up by Angus Reid, whose poll made no comparisons to polling by other firms. In fact, no pollster would draw conclusive comparisons to polls whose objectives, approach and questions differed so completely from their own. Has opposition to the Northern Gateway Pipelines proposal grown? The Angus Reid poll does not answer that question.

Instead Angus Reid focuses on where B.C. residents stand today. Their headline states that most British Columbians are on the fence when it comes to the Northern Gateway Pipeline, backed by the number without strong views and those who have not closely followed this story. The poll does find more than a third of BCers (35%) completely oppose and one-in-four (24%) oppose the proposal. Most importantly they “could change their minds based on economic or environmental considerations.”

I’m surprised by the Observer‘s focus on an unsubstantiated growth in opposition when there is so much fascinating content about B.C. residents’ environmental and economic concerns. Why ignore a professional opinion about the validity of the comparison and discard such rich information about British Columbians’ priorities today?

The story, published August 2, excluded my comments. In the interest of balance and to clarify how polls can and cannot be compared, here is my Q&A with the Observer:

Question

What do you think changed public support for Enbridge since last poll? In January, Enbridge released an Ipsos poll that said 48 per cent of British Columbians support the Northern Gateway project and only 32 per cent oppose. The new poll found that 59 % are opposed.

Answer

It’s not really possible to compare two polls from two different firms with different questions. Past polls, including my firm’s, simply scanned public support for the pipeline (or in our case, the pipeline and tanker proposal). The Angus Reid poll takes a deeper look at the potential mobility of those opinions. To draw a true comparison, the same poll would have to be conducted (with same questions and same methodology).

Having said that, time has passed, the premier has taken a position on the proposal and B.C. residents have more information than they had before. This has all brought the information to the front of residents’ minds. Where a few months ago, the Northern Gateway Pipelines proposal lived in a more hypothetical world, now there’s an imminence to it. Residents now understand that something is going to happen — whether it’s a a pipeline or a massive public outcry. So they are beginning to form their opinions.

I like this poll because it forces residents to consider the terms of reference: the “bottom-line” requirements.

Question

The poll found that about one- in-four opponents could be swayed by the right environmental and economic approach. About a third of British Columbians said they would be more likely to support the project of all of the government’s new pipeline requirements were met.

Answer

In our own past polling, we have found reasonable understanding and tolerance for oil and gas exploration and development (offshore) given the relative safety of the current technology compared to the past. And many BCers fully understand that this province has a pretty dense network of pipelines. On the other hand, environmental guarantees are the bottom line in terms of garnering that support. It’s a different topic (offshore vs oilsands) and a different time (I examined this issue from 2001-2005 or so). But environmental guarantees will be key to garnering and keeping public support. And I think the Angus Reid poll demonstrates this.