{"id":5391,"date":"2017-08-31T17:00:31","date_gmt":"2017-08-31T17:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/?p=5391"},"modified":"2022-11-17T00:23:57","modified_gmt":"2022-11-17T00:23:57","slug":"will-voters-elect-green-partys-pete-fry-to-vancouver-city-council","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/?p=5391","title":{"rendered":"Will voters elect Green Party’s Pete Fry to Vancouver City Council?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Vancouver B.C. (31 August\u00a02017)<\/p>\n

The by-election race for Vancouver’s\u00a0vacant City Council seat is the Greens’ to lose. And lose they may\u00a0to the Non-Partisan Association or Vision Vancouver, despite both being well back in the poll.<\/p>\n

Released for public education purposes, the poll finds NPA support is composed largely of older voters who are more likely to cast a ballot. Vision is well known for its organized get-out-the-vote volunteers, a consistent advantage for the governing party over several election cycles. Either party, currently vying for second place, could upset a race that today favours the Greens’ Pete Fry.<\/p>\n

Currently 38% of decided voters tell us they would\u00a0support the Green Party, up from 30% in\u00a0July<\/a>\u00a0when the party\u00a0had yet to name candidate Pete Fry. NPA, whose support has softened over the past month, and Vision now compete for second place (21% and 19%). Support for OneCity, who announced their candidate Judy Graves prior to our July poll, has fallen dramatically (to 5%).<\/p>\n

Currently, over half of Vancouverites (52%) are undecided or will not vote in the upcoming by-election. Even so, our poll’s 48% undoubtedly overstates expected voter turnout. Just 43%\u00a0who were eligible voted in Vancouver’s\u00a02014 municipal election<\/a>.\u00a0Fewer still turned out in 2011<\/a>\u00a0(35%). Turnout to municipal by-elections, such as the October 14th’s council and school board vote, is even lower.<\/p>\n

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Who supports the Greens?<\/h5>\n

A challenge for the Greens is the composition of their support. Our poll finds that 64% of voters under 35 years will vote\u00a0Green, while just 16% of voters 55 and older will do so.<\/p>\n

To win that seat, the Greens must\u00a0translate youthful intention into action at the polling stations October 14\u2014a monumental task.<\/p>\n

Who supports NPA?<\/h5>\n

If the by-election were held among residents aged 55 and older, NPA would be the clear winner:<\/p>\n