{"id":5357,"date":"2017-07-28T20:44:38","date_gmt":"2017-07-28T20:44:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/?p=5357"},"modified":"2022-02-08T22:02:07","modified_gmt":"2022-02-08T22:02:07","slug":"will-vision-vancouver-lose-council-seat-in-fall-by-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/?p=5357","title":{"rendered":"Will Vision Vancouver lose council seat in fall by-election?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Vancouver B.C. (28 July\u00a02017)<\/p>\n<p>The Green Party or Non-Partisan Association (NPA) are poised to pick up a seat in this fall&#8217;s by-election to fill the Vancouver City Council seat vacated by Geoff Meggs, who is now Premier John Horgan&#8217;s chief of staff.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5375\" src=\"http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/J759-JUL-POLL-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1500\" height=\"844\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/J759-JUL-POLL-1.png 1500w, http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/J759-JUL-POLL-1-300x169.png 300w, http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/J759-JUL-POLL-1-768x432.png 768w, http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/J759-JUL-POLL-1-1024x576.png 1024w, http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/J759-JUL-POLL-1-941x529.png 941w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1500px) 100vw, 1500px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The poll, released for public education, finds that if the by-election were held today, just 17% of decided by-election voters would support a Vision Vancouver candidate. The Green Party and NPA would compete for plurality support. Declared OneCity candidate Judy Graves would receive about as many votes as a Vision candidate (18%).<\/p>\n<p>The<strong> Green Party<\/strong> is a clear winner with these groups:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>under 35 years\u00a0<\/strong>(39% vs. NPA 27%),<\/li>\n<li><strong>women<\/strong>\u00a0(33% vs. OneCity 23% vs. NPA 22%),<\/li>\n<li><strong>short-term rental opponents\u00a0<\/strong>(32% vs OneCity 25%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The\u00a0<strong>NPA<\/strong>\u00a0has the directional edge with these groups:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>55 and older <\/strong>(28% vs. Green 24% vs OneCity 24%),<\/li>\n<li><strong>men<\/strong> (33% vs. Green 27%),<\/li>\n<li><strong>short-term rental supporters<\/strong> (34% vs. Green 26%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Although not poised to be elected at this early stage, Judy Graves and OneCity are competitive among residents 55 and older and\u00a0<strong>STR opponents<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Vision<\/strong>, which shares third position in our hypothetical by-election, garners its lower support levels (17%) relatively consistently from almost all\u00a0groups. Younger adults, with\u00a0single-digit support for Vision,\u00a0are now leaning strongly\u00a0<strong>Green<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/J759-COUNCIL-SUPPORT-COUNCIL-SUPPORT.pdf\">View data table here.<\/a><\/p>\n<h2>Research Notes<\/h2>\n<address><em>These\u00a0<\/em><em>are the findings of an online survey of 400 residents of the City of Vancouver. The survey, released for public education, was conducted by Justason Market Intelligence. <\/em><em>The final weighted sample reflects the actual population demographics according to the most recent census (2016). These data rely on an online sample of the firm&#8217;s residential \/ consumer panel, recruited using probability sampling\u00a0by landline and cell phone.<\/em><\/address>\n<address>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Dates of research:\u00a0<\/strong><em>Online, July 20-24, 2017.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><strong>Sample size:\u00a0<\/strong>400 Vancouver residents including 209 decided voters.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Methodology:\u00a0<\/strong><em>Justason Market Intelligence online residential panel.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><strong>Weighting:\u00a0<\/strong><em>Final population data were weighted to match actual regional, gender, and age distributions according to\u00a0the 2016 Canadian Census.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><strong>Margin of error:\u00a0<\/strong><em>An unweighted probability sample of 400 carries a margin of error of +\/-5.0 percentage points 95% of the time.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><strong>Research Sponsor:<\/strong>\u00a0Justason Market Intelligence Inc.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/address>\n<address>\u00a0<\/address>\n<address><strong>For more information contact:<\/strong><\/address>\n<address><strong>Barb Justason,\u00a0<\/strong><strong>Justason Market Intelligence Inc.<\/strong><em><br \/>\n+1 604 783 4165 \/ Barb@JustasonMI.com \/\u00a0<\/em><em>JMI.co<\/em><\/address>\n<address>\u00a0\u00a0<\/address>\n<address>\u2013 30 \u2013\u00a0<\/address>\n<p><span style=\"line-height: 1.5;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<address>\u00a0\u00a0<\/address>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Vancouver B.C. (28 July\u00a02017) The Green Party or Non-Partisan Association (NPA) are poised to pick up a seat in this fall&#8217;s by-election to fill the Vancouver City Council seat vacated by Geoff Meggs, who is now Premier John Horgan&#8217;s chief of staff. The poll, released for public education, finds that if the by-election were held [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[159,48,20,22,6,8,1,9],"tags":[58,328,42,329,49,331,4,5,330,14,10,11],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5357"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5357"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5357\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6335,"href":"http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5357\/revisions\/6335"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5357"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5357"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5357"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}