{"id":5183,"date":"2017-05-05T06:58:35","date_gmt":"2017-05-05T06:58:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/?p=5183"},"modified":"2017-05-06T20:12:26","modified_gmt":"2017-05-06T20:12:26","slug":"are-the-bc-liberals-leading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.justasonmi.com\/?p=5183","title":{"rendered":"BC Liberals leading"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"Vancouver B.C. (4 May\u00a02017) \u2013 The BC Liberals are leading\u00a0among B.C.’s decided voters according to the latest polling from Justason Market Intelligence and zinc tank. (Polling this wave was mixed mode, combining\u00a0online and telephone interviewing.)<\/p>\n

BC Liberals are up a point (to 39%) since late April, while NDP support has declined three points (to 34%). Over the same period, BC Green support has grown to 23%.<\/p>\n

WILL THE BC LIBERALS WIN THE POPULAR VOTE?<\/h5>\n

Not so fast!<\/strong>\u00a0The race for the popular vote<\/strong> will, in our opinion, tighten up as election day approaches. BC Green support is likely to diminish by election day as voters consider the strategic implications of voting BC Green. The BC NDP decline may turn around\u00a0in these final days of the campaign.<\/p>\n

How can the BC Greens affect the election outcome? In 2013, 12 ridings were won by the\u00a0BC Liberals with fewer votes than the combined BC NDP and BC Green count. In other words, had those Green votes been cast instead for the BC NDP, the BC Liberals would not have won those seats. (We acknowledge we’re assuming a lot about where that BC Green vote emanates from. BC Greens do count more than a few disenfranchised BC Liberals among their supporters.)<\/p>\n

The BC Liberals\u00a0can only benefit from the BC Greens’ decision to run in almost every riding. (The Greens are running in 83 of 87 ridings, up from 69 in 2013). If the BC Liberals do form the next government, they can thank in part the BC Greens’ more aggressive 2017 campaign. At the same time, we expect to see a meaningful increase in popular support for the BC Greens this election.<\/p>\n

WHO WILL FORM GOVERNMENT?<\/h5>\n

The party winning 44 of 87 ridings\u00a0forms the next government.<\/p>\n

Polling doesn’t tell us who\u00a0will form the next government. Our tool, even at this current\u00a0large sample size, doesn’t capture the riding-by-riding nuances that, for example, elect BC NDP candidates in the midst of regions pollsters would describe as BC Liberal heartland.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, there is no avoiding the reality that the BC Liberals have more safe seats than do the BC NDP.<\/p>\n

WHAT IS A SAFE SEAT?<\/h5>\n

The pollsters took a look at\u00a0the 2013 election outcome<\/a>. We defined a safe 2017 riding\u00a0as having received\u00a015% of total riding votes more than 2013’s\u00a0second place finisher. By this definition, the BC Liberals enter this election with 29 safe seats to the BC NDP’s 17. (A margin of victory of 10% increases Liberal safe seats\u00a0to 36 and the NDP’s to 19.)<\/p>\n

Can the BC NDP hold its current 34 seats, including these narrow 2013 victories?<\/p>\n