Wilson-Raybould has the edge
2019-04-07
Vancouver B.C. (6 April 2019) — If an election were held today, former Attorney General Jody Wilson Raybould would edge out her rivals in the Vancouver-Granville federal riding. One-third (33%) of Vancouver Granville riding voters would support the Wilson-Raybould. As yet unnamed Liberal and NDP candidates would would trail with 24 per cent support, a drop of 20 points since the 2015 general election. NDP support is relatively stable at 23 per cent. A Conservative candidate would garner 14 per cent support, down 12 points since 2015. Currently, 19 per cent of voters are undecided.
The pattern for Liberal support is similar in Vancouver as whole. Support for a Liberal candidate has dropped nearly 20 points (from 44% to 25%). NDP candidate support is up marginally (from 28% to 33%). Conservative support is relatively unchanged at 24% (from 22%). The poll of Vancouver residents finds 25% are undecided.
In Vancouver Granville, similar proportions of men and women support the potential candidate (34% and 31% respectively). Wilson-Raybould’s support rises with age, from 17 per cent among voters under 35 years to 42 per cent among those 55 years and older.
Read more: The Star Vancouver coverage: Jody Wilson-Raybould could beat Vancouver riding rivals by nearly double digits, poll suggests
2015 VOTER MOBILITY
Jody Wilson-Raybould could disrupt major party support in the Vancouver Granville riding. One-quarter to one-third of 2015 Liberal, NDP and Conservative supporters would support a now-Independent Jody Wilson-Raybould.
More specifically, 2015 Wilson-Raybould Liberal supporters in Vancouver Granville would divide their vote about equally between Independent Wilson-Raybould and a Liberal candidate. Fewer would move their vote to NDP, while support for a Conservative candidate is approaching non-existent:
2015 Jody Wilson-Raybould Liberal supporters:
- Independent Wilson-Raybould: 35%
- Liberal: 38%
- NDP: 17%
- Conservative: 5%
2015 NDP supporter:
- Independent Wilson-Raybould: 28%
- Liberal: 9%
- NDP: 58%
- Conservative: 0%
2015 Conservative supporter:
- Independent Wilson-Raybould: 26%
- Liberal: 2%
- NDP: 0%
- Conservative: 72%
WILL VANCOUVER GRANVILLE CITIZENS CONSIDER VOTING FOR WILSON-RAYBOULD?
In separate questioning, pollsters asked Vancouver Granville residents to disregard their voting intentions and indicate whether they would consider supporting Jody Wilson-Raybould. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of Vancouver Granville residents would consider supporting Jody Wilson-Raybould if she runs as an independent. One-in-ten (10%) will not consider supporting Wilson-Raybould, while one-quarter (26%) reserve judgement.
Notably, Wilson-Raybould captures the attention of sizeable groups of 2015 major party supporters:
- 2015 Liberal party supporters: 75% would consider supporting Wilson-Raybould
- 2015 Conservative supporters: 49%
- 2015 NDP supporters: 51%
Men and women are equally likely to consider supporting Wilson-Raybould (65% and 63%). One-in-five (22%) men will not consider supporting the potential candidate, compared to just two per cent of women, who are more likely to reserve judgement (33%).
A majority of the riding’s youngest residents (under 35 years) will consider supporting Wilson-Raybould (56%). Residents 35 and older show higher support (35-54 years: 70%; 55+: 67%). Thirty-eight per cent of younger residents currently reserve judgement, while six per cent would not support the potential candidate.
TOP ELECTION ISSUES
Housing affordability is the top election in the Vancouver Granville electoral district (26%). Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership is statistically tied (at 23%) with housing affordability. The handling of the Kinder Morgan Pipeline is the top issue for fewer (at 13%), followed by tax rates and the handling of the SNC-Lavalin issue (7% each).
For more information contact:
Barb Justason, Justason Market Intelligence
+1 604 783 4165 / Barb@JustasonMI.com
About Justason Market Intelligence Inc.
Justason Market Intelligence Inc. is a Vancouver-based market and social research firm asking the right people the right questions and delivering epiphanies. Justason offers the complete range of survey research and qualitative methodologies. The firm owns and operates Vancouver Focus® (VancouverFocus.com).
View Vancouver Granville data tables
View City of Vancouver data tables
Research Notes
These are the findings of two Justason Market Intelligence (JMI) surveys of citizens 18 years and older who reside in the Vancouver-Granville federal electoral district (n=241) and the City of Vancouver (n=514). The surveys, conducted and sponsored by Justason Market Intelligence for public education purposes, were completed in English April 4th and 5th, 2019.
Vancouver Granville survey: The hybrid methodology combined online surveys and automated RDD landline interviews. A maximum of three attempts were made to reach potentially qualified individuals. The final weighted sample was adjusted to match the demographic distributions of the Vancouver Granville electoral district according to the 2016 Canadian census. Details of actual and weighted samples are provided in the data tables. Surveys employing non-probability sampling such as an online methodology do not report margin of error. For reference, the final sample of 241 would carry a margin of error of +/-6.3 percentage points 95 per cent of the time. The margin of error for 195 decided voters would be +/-7.0.
City of Vancouver survey: The research was completed online among a randomly selected Justason Market Intelligence panelists. The final weighted sample was adjusted to match the demographic and regional distributions of the City of Vancouver according to the 2016 Canadian census. Details of actual and weighted samples are provided in the data tables. As a non-probability sample, this research does not report margin of error. For reference, a probability sample of 514 residents in this poll would carry a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points 95 per cent of the time. The margin of error for 379, equivalent to decided voters in this poll, would be +/-5.0.
