Neighbours give edge to NDP, BCers tell pollsters
2017-05-02
Vancouver B.C. (1 May 2017) – Our neighbours support the BC NDP by an edge BC voters tell pollsters.
The pollsters asked B.C. residents, “With the provincial election on May 9, 2017, thinking of your neighbours, which party do you think they will vote for?”
Perhaps reacting to a well covered Mainstreet Research poll reporting a substantial lead for the BC NDP, somewhat more voters now tell pollsters they believe their neighbours support the BC NDP. BC Liberals had the social lead when we last asked voters about their neighbours (“Do we really know our neighbours?”, Apr 18-20).
Voters’ own intentions and their perceptions of their neighbours are statistically similar to earlier-in-April findings.
Regionally, there are some meaningful findings in how voters expect their neighbours to vote:
City of Vancouver: The NDP’s neighbour perceptions lead on the Liberals is opening up. Perceptions of the Greens are starting to level off.
Balance of Metro Vancouver Region: While level in Wave 1, neighbour perceptions appear to be opening up in favour of the Liberals.
Capital Region: While growth is apparent in self-reported intentions for Greens, neighbour perceptions are starting to drop off , to the benefit of NDP. There is also a decline for the Liberals.
Vancouver Island/Gulf Islands: While the NDP hold a strong lead in neighbour perceptions, there is growth for the Greens. This situation may create a few interesting races to watch on May 9. The perceptions of neighbours voting for the Liberals is declining.
Northern BC: While voters’ perceptions of neighbours’ intentions show the NDP now eclipsing the Liberals, the North remains firmly Liberal territory in terms of actual voter intentions.
Southern Interior and Coast: The Southern Interior and Coast region may deliver some surprises. The wide gap favouring the BC Liberals (53% vs 29%) has narrowed to just 3 percentage points, closing in on actual decided voter intentions (which currently stand at 41% each).
Research Notes
Justason Market Intelligence and zinc tank have teamed up to offer regular insights on the British Columbia provincial election. These are the findings of a survey of 1,129 adult residents of British Columbia. The survey was conducted in partnership by Justason Market Intelligence and zinc tank. The online sample source, Google communities, uses Bayesian, river-sampling methodology to yield a final weighted sample reflecting the actual population demographics and character. These data rely on a non-probability weighted sample; hence, margin of error is not reported. B.C. has higher-than-average penetration of mobile internet access. Broadband internet access exceeds landline usage. The Google Surveys research tool continues to be rated favourably and has been used extensively by zinc tank’s Brian F. Singh in his work in the 2014 Winnipeg Municipal Election and during the Alberta and Federal Elections in 2015.- Dates of research: April 25-28, 2017
- Total Sample: 1,129 B.C. residents 18 years and older
- Methodology: Online via Google Surveys
- Weighting: Final data were weighted to match actual regional, gender, and age distributions according to the most recent census.
- Margin of error: This research does not report margin of error. A pure unweighted probability sample of 1,129 reports margin of error at ±2.9 percentage points most (95 per cent) of the time.
- Research Sponsors: zinc tank and Justason Market Intelligence Inc.
+1 604 783 4165 / Barb@JustasonMI.com / JMI.co Brian Singh, zinc tank +1 403 861 9462 / brian@zinc-tank.com / zinc-tank.com – 30 –
