When it comes to voting in BC, do we really know our neighbours?

Post Date

2017-04-27

Vancouver B.C. (27 Apr 2017) – BC voters think their neighbours are more inclined to vote BC Liberal than they are, according to the latest poll from Justason Market Intelligence / zinc tank. Forty-two percent (42%) of decided voters told pollsters their neighbours will support the BC Liberals. By comparison, 36% will, themselves, support the BC Liberals, a meaningful six-percentage point gap. This gap widens among voters under 55 years and among men.

On the other hand, belief that voters’ neighbours support the BC NDP and the BC Greens match voters’ own intentions.

 

Regionally, voters in the Southern Interior / South Coast region believe their neighbours will vote BC Liberal. In fact actual voter intention is quite balanced.


These two polls offer a window into voters’ alignment with other voters. A large number of voters who themselves lean BC NDP believe their own neighbours are leaning BC Liberal. What are the implications? In close ridings, strategic voting can erode support for the third party (BC Green) as anti-Liberal supporters vote strategically to prevent the re-election of their BC Liberal candidate.

View the data tables here.

Research Notes

Justason Market Intelligence and zinc tank have teamed up to offer regular insights on the British Columbia provincial election. These are the findings of a survey of 1,122 adult residents of British Columbia. The survey was conducted by Justason Market Intelligence and zinc tank on the 1Question platform. The online sample source, Google communities, uses Bayesian, river-sampling methodology to yield a final weighted sample reflecting the population demographics and character. These data rely on a non-probability weighted sample; hence, no margin of error is reported. B.C. has higher-than-average penetration of mobile internet access. Broadband internet access exceeds landline usage. The Google Surveys research tool continues to be rated favourably and has been used extensively by zinc tank’s Brian F. Singh in his work in the 2014 Winnipeg Municipal Election and during the Alberta and Federal Elections in 2015.
  • Dates of research: April 18-20, 2017
  • Sample: 1,122 B.C. residents 18 years and older
  • Methodology: Online via Google Surveys
  • Weighting: Final data were weighted to match actual regional, gender, and age distributions according to the most recent census.
  • Margin of error: This research does not report margin of error. A pure unweighted probability sample of 1,122 reports margin of error at ±2.9 percentage points most (95 per cent) of the time.
  • Research Sponsors: zinc tank and Justason Market Intelligence Inc.
 
For more information contact:
Barb Justason, Justason Market Intelligence Inc.
+1 604 783 4165 / Barb@JustasonMI.com / 
JMI.co
 
Brian Singh, zinc tank
+1 403 861 9462 / brian@zinc-tank.com / zinc-tank.com
 
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