Voters give the edge to the BC NDP
Vancouver B.C. (24 Apr 2017) – The BC NDP are directionally ahead of the BC Liberals, in a poll of BC voters completed late last week. Currently, support for the BC NDP stands at 39% of decided voters, while the BC Liberals are only marginally behind at 36%. Well back, but with a comparatively strong showing, one-in-five decided voters (19%) support the BC Greens.
Do these findings point to a potential BC NDP government? Not necessarily. BC Liberal support is highest among older voters (age 55 and older), a group more likely to turn up on voting day. On the other hand, there is not yet evidence that the BC Liberals are capitalizing on their expected core support, generally found outside of Metro Vancouver and the Islands. While voters in B.C.’s north would hand a victory to the BC Liberals, residents in the other traditional BC Liberal strongholds in southern BC outside Metro Vancouver are not so sure, with about equal numbers of BC NDP and BC Liberal supporters.
THE NUMBERS BY GENDER AND AGE
Men are about as likely to support the BC NDP as the BC Liberals (38% and 39% respectively). Women, on the other hand, lean to BC NDP (41% versus 33% who support the BC Liberals). BC Green support is relatively consistent garnering support from 18% of men and 20% of women.
Across age, BC NDP support is consistent among all age groups, declining only directionally with age (from 42% to 37%). BC Liberal support, on the other hand, increases substantially with age (from 30% to 44%). Notably, older residents are also the group most likely to turnout to vote, suggesting a bump for the BC Liberals that may not be evident in our findings. BC Green support is relatively stable with age, declining only directionally among the oldest age cohort (from 21% to 17%).
THE NUMBERS BY REGION
As other pollsters have reported, we have found strong support for the BC Greens in the Capital region and the balance of Vancouver Island + Gulf Islands. Moreover, the BC Greens are running in second in these regions.
BC NDP hold clear leads in City of Vancouver (41%), Capital Region (47%), and Balance Vancouver Island + Gulf Islands (40%).
Surprisingly, BC Liberals hold a clear lead only in Northern BC (53%). Throughout the rest of the province the BC Liberals and BC NDP are statistically tied (Metro Vancouver: 40% vs 38%; and BC’s southern interior and south coast region 39% vs 42%).
Currently 37% of BC residents are unsure or will not vote suggesting voter turnout intentions of 63%.
Research NotesJustason Market Intelligence and zinc tank have teamed up to offer regular insights on the British Columbia provincial election. These are the findings of a survey of 1,128 adult residents of British Columbia. The survey was conducted by Justason Market Intelligence and zinc tank. The online sample source, Google communities, uses Bayesian, river-sampling methodology to yield a final weighted sample reflecting the population demographics and character. These data rely on a non-probability weighted sample; hence, no margin of error is reported. B.C. has higher-than-average penetration of mobile internet access. Broadband internet access exceeds landline usage. The Google Surveys research tool continues to be rated favourably and has been used extensively by zinc tank’s Brian F. Singh in his work in the 2014 Winnipeg Municipal Election and during the Alberta and Federal Elections in 2015.
- Dates of research: April 18-20, 2017
- Sample: 1,128 B.C. residents 18 years and older
- Methodology: Online via Google Surveys
- Weighting: Final data were weighted to match actual regional, gender, and age distributions according to the most recent census.
- Margin of error: This research does not report margin of error. A pure unweighted probability sample of 1,128 reports margin of error at ±2.9 percentage points most (95 per cent) of the time.
- Research Sponsor: zinc tank and Justason Market Intelligence Inc.
+1 604 783 4165 / Barb@JustasonMI.com / JMI.co Brian Singh, zinc tank +1 403 861 9462 / firstname.lastname@example.org / zinc-tank.com – 30 –