How the anti-Conservative strategy is playing in Vancouver

Post Date

2015-10-12

Vancouver B.C. (12 Oct 2015) – The Liberals can thank strategic voters for their position in a tight race with the NDP in the City of Vancouver.

The strategic, anti-Conservative, vote is the predominant reason the Liberals are currently tied with the NDP in Vancouver’s federal election race.

Slide03

While seven-in-ten (69 per cent) decided voters will support their party of choice, three-in-ten (30 per cent) will vote strategically, to defeat most commonly a Conservative candidate. In other words, nearly one-quarter (23 per cent) of Vancouver voters will vote specifically to prevent the election of their riding’s Conservative candidate.

When it comes to party loyalty, the overwhelming majority of Green supporters support the party and its platform (86 per cent). Only the Conservatives enjoy a similar devotion level (81 per cent).

“I support this party and its election platform.”

  1. Green: 86%
  2. Conservative: 81%
  3. NDP: 66%
  4. Liberal: 59%

On the other hand, forty per cent of Liberal supporters say they are voting to prevent the Conservatives forming government. One-third (33 per cent) of NDP supporters share this view.

“I will help help prevent another party forming government.”

  1. Liberal: 40%
  2. NDP: 33%
  3. Conservative: 18%
  4. Green: 8%

How do Strategic Voters differ from Party Supporters?

With a goal of limiting Conservative support, strategic voting may be succeeding. The Liberals are the primary beneficiary.

Conservative support is dramatically lower among Strategic Voters (14 per cent versus 26 per cent among Party Supporters), while the Liberal vote is dramatically higher (45 per cent compared to 29 percent among Party Supporters).

NDP support is directionally higher among Party Supporters than Strategic Voters (34 per cent versus 39 per cent).

With the non-Conservative voters crowding to support a winner, strategic voting has a negative impact on Green support. Among Party Supporters, 11 per cent support Green compared to two per cent among Strategic Voters.

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What does this mean for the Liberals?

With a sizeable proportion of Liberal support relying on crowd-sourced anti-Harper sentiment, the Liberal party must earn the loyalty of its 2015 voters if it is to retain and grow current support levels.


Research Notes

These are the findings of a Justason Market Intelligence Inc. online poll of 467 adult citizens of the City of Vancouver. The firm’s panel of Vancouver residents was the sample source.
  • Dates of research:  October 6-9, 2015.
  • Sample: This research relies on a non‐probability sample of 467 City of Vancouver residents 18 years and older who are members of the JMI City of Vancouver residential panel. The sample included 397 decided voters. The final data were weighted to represent actual regional and demographic distributions according to the most recent census.
  • Methodology: Online among JMI panel members.
  • Margin of error: Margins of error are not applied to survey data that are collected from online panel communities nor survey data that are weighted to ensure demographic representativeness. An unweighted random (or probability) sample of 467 reports a margin of error of ±4.5 percentage points, most (95 per cent) of the time. On 397 decided voters, the margin of error would be ±4.9 percentage points most of the time. Subgroups such as specific age or gender groups would carry wider margins of error.
  • Research Sponsor:  Justason Market Intelligence Inc.
 
For more information contact:
Barb Justason, Principal
Justason Market Intelligence Inc.
Direct: +1 604 783 4165
Email: Barb@JustasonMI.com
web: 
JMI.co
twitter: @barbjustason
 
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