NDP leads in Metro Vancouver
Vancouver B.C. (17 Sep 2015) – If it were up to Metro Vancouverites, the New Democratic Party would form the next government, according to a recent poll by Justason Market Intelligence.
At about the halfway mark in the 2015 federal election campaign, the poll finds 47 per cent of Metro Vancouver’s decided voters would support the NDP.
The Liberals and Conservatives vie for second place at 23 per cent and 20 per cent respectively. The Greens receive 10 per cent support.
In 2011, the Conservatives easily won Metro Vancouver’s popular vote in the federal election with 43 per cent support. The NDP received 30 per cent while the Liberals came in a more distant third with 20 per cent.
NDP support is highest in the City of Vancouver with support from over half of voters (53 per cent). NDP support is similarly high in Burnaby/New Westminster (47 per cent). Even traditional Conservative strongholds on the North Shore and Fraser south communities (Surrey, Langley, etc.) may see a much tighter race than in 2011. In 2011, the Conservatives easily took the popular vote and seats in these regions.
But these shifts in popular support do not mean that we’ll see all Conservative MPs losing their jobs in October. Entrenched pockets of Conservative support in ridings south of the Fraser, Richmond, the North East (Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Maple Ridge, Pitt Meadows) and North Shore will undoubtedly deliver Conservatives candidates to Ottawa in October.
Breaking down the alliance shift
Not everyone will vote the way they did in 2011. And the Conservatives, who have the most to lose, may be hit the hardest. One-third of 2011 Conservative supporters may divide their 2015 support among the NDP and Liberals and even Green.
The NDP are holding onto a few more of their 2011 supporters (79 per cent), this in addition to what they may gain in new support from their rivals.
Even so, 14 per cent of 2011 NDP supporters may vote Liberal and a further 6 per cent tell us they will vote Green.
In number of votes, attrition of the Conservative vote is substantial. But the Liberals have been even less successful holding their share of support. Half of 2011 Liberals supporters tell us they will vote NDP (42 per cent) or Conservative (5 per cent).
How would 2011 Conservative supporters vote today?
- 64 per cent Conservative
- 17 per cent NDP
- 15 per cent Liberal
- 5 per cent Green
How would 2011 NDP supporters vote today?
- 79 per cent NDP
- 14 per cent Liberal
- 1 per cent Conservative
- 6 per cent Green
How would 2011 Liberal Supporters vote today?
- 52 per cent Liberal
- 42 per cent NDP
- 5 per cent Conservative
- 1 per cent Green
Research NotesThese are the findings of a Justason Market Intelligence Inc. online poll of 938 adult residents of Metro Vancouver. Justason’s panel of Metro Vancouver residents was the sample source.
- Dates of research: September 1-10, 2015.
- Sample: This research relies on a non‐probability sample of 938 Metro Vancouver residents 18 years and older who are members of the JMI Metro Vancouver residential panel. The sample included 663 decided voters. The final data were weighted to represent actual regional and demographic distributions according to the most recent census.
- Methodology: Online among JMI panel members.
- Margin of error: A pure random (or probability) sample of 938 reports a margin of error of ±3.2 percentage points, most (95 per cent) of the time. On 663 decided voters, the margin of error would be ±3.8 percentage points most (95 per cent) of the time. Subgroups such as specific age or gender groups carry wider margins of error.
- Research Sponsor: Justason Market Intelligence Inc.
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