Election Day in Vancouver
Vancouver B.C. (15 Nov 2014, at 8:45 following delayed close of polls) – In our final poll prior to today’s municipal election, we confirm our expectation that Mayor Gregor Robertson will be with us for another four years. This poll, conducted November 12 to 14, finds that 48% of decided voters plan to support Gregor Robertson of Vision Vancouver. Kirk LaPointe of the Non-Partisan Association receives support from 41%. Meena Wong follows at some distance with 9% support.
We’re comfortable predicting a win for Gregor Robertson. But perhaps not as convinced our poll will precisely predict the popular vote. It was easier to call the mayoral race in 2011 with just two main candidates in the mix. We didn’t see significant shifts, but rather steady (if slow) movement in their fortunes. Our prediction was well within margin of error. And the final outcome made perfect sense in the trajectory of that race. (See our November 2011 prediction here)
This time around, there are more variables:
- What are the implications for a right-of-centre party (NPA) competing with two parties (Vision and COPE) both vying for the left? Will the left split the vote, thus electing NPA?
- What will Wong’s COPE supporters do when they are alone with their ballots?
- How effective is each party’s Get Out The Vote (GOTV) machine?
- Will voters penalize Robertson increasing homelessness problem?
- Did Kirk LaPointe score a knock-out punch when he revealed Meggs’ union fundraising activities?
- How did voters view Kirk LaPointe’s apparent impatience with reporters’ questions? Did they notice?
- Did the legal action against the NPA help or harm Vision’s image in the eyes of voters?
- Do voters believe Robertson’s apology was sincere?
- Did Robertson’s appeal to COPE voters have the desired effect?
The gap between the NPA and Vision mayoral candidates is narrower than in our October poll, but we aren’t seeing the same degree of tightening as reported by other pollsters. Our poll, which was likely the the last in field, perhaps captures some settling of intentions. Or we may be reporting the widest limits of our margin of error.
Summary of poll results (updated November 15 with final election outcome)
- Gregor Robertson (Vision) 48% / 47% (actual popular vote)
- Kirk LaPointe (NPA) 41% / 41%
- Meena Wong (COPE) 9% / 9%
The race at the bottom will be interesting and is likely to predict the balance of power. A Vision majority seemed likely in October (see it here). But today, a Vision majority in council may be in doubt. Vision incumbents Tim Stevenson and Geoff Meggs are in jeopardy and their election, along with a Vision majority, will depend on the Vision GOTV machine.
If these numbers hold up (and the Vision GOTV does not over-achieve), a Vision plurality of four plus the mayor may face a combined Green and NPA opposition of six councillors.
Summary of poll results (updated November 15 with election outcome)
Election likely / Elected:
- Adriane Carr (Green) 50% / 41%
- George Affleck (NPA) 36% / 38%
- Raymond Louie (Vision) 35% / 34%
- Andrea Reimer (Vision) 33% / 34%
- Kerry Jang (Vision) 32% / 34%
- Pete Fry (Green) 31% / 26%
- Heather Deal (Vision) 31% / 37%
Election at risk / possible / Elected:
- Elizabeth Ball (NPA) 29% / 37%
- Cleta Brown (Green) 29% / 26%
- Melissa De Genova (NPA) 28% / 35%
- Ian Robertson (NPA) 28% / 31%
- Tim Stevenson (Vision) 27% / 32%
- Geoff Meggs (Vision) 26% / 31%
- Gregory Baker (NPA) 23%
- Tim Louis (COPE) 23%
- Rob McDowell (NPA) 23%
- Suzanne Scott (NPA) 22%
- Niki Sharma (Vision) 22%
- Tony Tang (Vision) 21%
- Lisa Barrett (COPE) 19%
Research NotesThese are the findings of a Justason Market Intelligence Inc. online poll of City of Vancouver decided voters. Data were weighted to match the regional distributions and demographic characteristics of the City according to the most recent census.
- Dates of research: November 12-14, 2014.
- Sample: 270 decided mayoral voters and 222 decided council voters.
- Methodology: Online among panelists.
- Margin of error: Probability samples of 270 and 222 report margins of error of ±6.0 and±6.6 percentage points, 95% of the time.
- Research Sponsor: Justason Market Intelligence Inc.
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