Vision Council likely, while balance of power up for grabs » Justason Market Intelligence

Vision Council likely, while balance of power up for grabs

Post Date

2014-10-29

Vancouver B.C. (29 Oct 2014) – Adriane Carr of the Green Party receives more support for her council seat than candidates for governing Vision Vancouver and Non-Partisan Association (NPA). NPA’s George Affleck, a distant second to Carr, still outperforms most Vision candidates.

Although the Vision Vancouver incumbents do not top the list of preferred candidates, they may be poised to hold the majority in council, with the likely re-election of Heather Deal, Tim Stevenson, Raymond Louie, Andrea Reimer, and Kerry Jang. Assuming the mayor is also re-elected, Vision Vancouver would have the needed six (of 11) positions for a majority.

In a race for the balance of power, Green, NPA and Vision all are potential factors. Vision may grow its numbers by re-electing Geoff Meggs and adding Niki Sharma. Incumbent NPA councillor Elizabeth Ball may be joined by newcomers Ian Robertson or Melissa De Genova. Green, which has already seen a meaningful growth in Adriane Carr’s popularity, may add Pete Fry or Cleta Brown to its ranks.

The Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE) are unlikely to elect candidates to Vancouver’s City Council.

Summary of results

Election likely:

  • Adriane Carr (Green) 52%
  • George Affleck (NPA) 34%
  • Heather Deal (Vision) 34%
  • Tim Stevenson (Vision) 32%
  • Raymond Louie (Vision) 32%
  • Andrea Reimer (Vision) 31%
  • Kerry Jang (Vision) 29%

Election possible:

  • Elizabeth Ball (NPA) 27%
  • Pete Fry (Green) 27%
  • Geoff Meggs (Vision) 26%
  • Cleta Brown (Green) 25%
  • Niki Sharma (Vision) 24%
  • Ian Robertson (NPA) 23%
  • Melissa De Genova (NPA) 23%

Election unlikely:

  • Gregory Baker (NPA) 22%
  • Suzanne Scott (NPA) 21%
  • Rob McDowell (NPA) 19%
  • Tim Louis (COPE) 17%
  • Jennifer O’Keefe (COPE) 15%
  • Tony Tang (Vision) 15%

 

Research Notes

These are the findings of a Justason Market Intelligence Inc. poll of 327 adult residents of the City of Vancouver. Justason’s panel was the sample source. Data were weighted to match the regional distributions and demographic characteristics of the City according to the most recent census.
  • Dates of research:  October 12-18, 2014
  • Sample: 327 Vancouver City citizens 18 years and older including 264 decided voters who selected council candidates
  • Methodology: Online among JMI panel members
  • Margin of error:  A probability sample of 327 reports a margin of error of ±5.4 percentage points, 95% of the time. On 264 decided council voters, ±6.0.
  • Research Sponsor:  Justason Market Intelligence Inc.
 
For more information contact:
Barb Justason, Principal
Justason Market Intelligence Inc.
Direct: +1 604 783 4165
Email: Barb@JustasonMI.com
web: 
JustasonMI.com
twitter: @barbjustason
 
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