City Council: Vision and NPA slide, while Green holds steady
2014-04-25
Vancouver B.C. (25 Apr 2014) – With municipal elections in seven months, support for governing Vision Vancouver has fallen five points since January. However, with 38% of decided voters preferring a Vision majority, the governing party seems likely to remain in power for a third term. Similar support levels returned this government to power in 2011.
Confirming growth noted in January, one-in-four voters (24%) support a Green majority. Notably, with the announcement of four council candidates, the Green Party is finally well positioned to capitalize on this support.
Just ahead of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) campaign fundraiser (scheduled for May), support for an NPA majority has fallen to the lowest level our polling has recorded (18%). This follows steady declines since reaching a high of 32% in July 2011, when NPA Councillor Suzanne Anton declared her candidacy for mayor.
COPE‘s low support continues at 10% and, like NPA, is now recording its lowest results since we began tracking city council support.
Note that this poll was taken in the days immediately prior to the release of homelessness numbers.
Will we support Robertson for a third term?
A strong candidate from another major party would represent meaningful competition for the mayor’s job. A small majority of decided voters would support a candidate other than incumbent Mayor Gregor Robertson in the upcoming election (43% versus 57% who would support another candidate). But just 13% are definite in their intent to support Robertson, while 33% will definitely support another candidate. These findings are unchanged since January. In the absence of a strong mayoral candidate from another major party, Gregor Robertson will return for a third term as mayor.
What are our top municipal concerns?
Vancouver residents are feeling the pinch: Affordable housing and cost of living rank highest among residents’ top issues of concern. With four-in-ten residents naming cost-of-living-related issues their top concern, voters expect municipal parties and candidates to present viable and relevant platforms addressing these critical concerns.
Research Notes These are the findings of a Justason Market Intelligence Inc. online poll of 357 decided voters among 481 adult residents of the City of Vancouver. Justason’s panel was the sample source. Data were weighted to match the regional distributions and demographic characteristics (age and sex) of the City according to the most recent census.
- Dates of research: April 16 to 22, 2014
- Sample: 481 Vancouver City adults 18 years and older
- Decided voters: 357
- Methodology: Online
- Margin of error: The study relied on a non-probability sample of online panelists. A unweighted probability sample of 481 reports a margin of error of ±4.5 percentage points, 95% of the time. The sample of 357 decided voters would carry an error rate of ±5.2 percentage points.
- Research Sponsor: Justason Market Intelligence Inc.
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