NDP continue to lead by 22 points » Justason Market Intelligence

NDP continue to lead by 22 points

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Vancouver, British Columbia (April 29, 2013) – With just over two weeks before B.C.’s provincial election, support for the BC NDP is not fading. The support gap, at 22 percentage points, is statistically unchanged since October 2012.

Support for the BC NDP stands at 49% of decided voters. BC Liberal support stands at 27%. BC Conservatives and BC Green continue with 12% and 11% respectively.


Greening on Vancouver Island

Metro Vancouver and Rest of Mainland support levels remain statistically unchanged since February. But Vancouver Island has shifted significantly toward the BC Green Party, now at 23% compared to 9% in February. Notably, this 14-point growth in support has no impact on the BC NDP. Instead, this new support comes at some expense to support for BC Liberals (down 6 points) and BC Conservatives (down 4 points).


Do voters really support their choice?

The largest proportion of the electorate tell us they are “traditional” BC Liberal supporters (41%), while 37% traditionally support the BC NDP.

But with current voter intention patterns swinging away from voters’ traditional BC Liberal support, it’s not surprising that only a slim majority (57%) will vote “for” their choice. The remaining 38% are voting “against” another party.

Most commonly, voters tell us they are voting against the BC Liberals (63%). Forty-three per cent (43%) are voting against the BC NDP.


Top election issues

The economy is the top election issue for 19% of British Columbians, followed by healthcare at 10%, the environment and taxes each at 8%. Honesty and accountability in government rounds out this second tier or top issues (8%).

  • BC NDP: A range of issues are now included among BC NDP supporters’ election concerns. Environmentsocial issueseducation and economy join healthcare with 9% to 11% citing these top election issues. Notably, healthcare dominated NDP supporters’ election concerns in February at 19%.
  • BC LiberalEconomy is far and away the top election issue for BC Liberal supporters (45%).
  • BC Conservative: Economy is the top election issue for BC Conservative supporters (24%), replacing taxes (their top issue at 15% in February).
  • BC Green: The environment continues to be BC Green supporters’ top election concern (36%).
  • Undecided voters: Among those who may firm up their vote between now and May 14, the economy (at 18%) is the most frequently cited election concern. Honesty in government, along with healthcare and taxes round out a second tier of election concerns for this group (at 9-10% each).

Note that proposals that would expand pipelines and tankers in B.C. no longer predominate among top election issues. Just 4% cite pipelines, Northern Gateway or Kinder Morgan among their top election concerns.

The Deck

Research Notes

These are the findings of a Justason Market Intelligence telephone-online hybrid poll of 600 adult British Columbians. With weighting, the final data set matches the regional distributions and demographic characteristics (age and sex) of British Columbia according to the most recent census.

  • Dates of research:  15-23 April, 2013
  • Sample: 600 BC adults 18 years and older
  • Methodology: Telephone-online hybrid
  • Margin of error: ±4.0 percentage points, 95% of the time
  • Research Sponsor: Justason Market Intelligence Inc.
For more information contact:
Barb Justason, Principal
Justason Market Intelligence Inc.
1156 Hornby Street Vancouver, BC V6Z1V8
Direct: +1 604 783 4165
Email: Barb@JustasonMI.com
web: JustasonMI.com
twitter: barbjustason


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